The price of a bad habit

A bettor I know places three units on a short-priced favourite. The favourite wins. He collects his small profit and calls it a good decision.

The favourite had no business being that short. The away side were compact, the full-backs were pinned, and the only chances came from set pieces. The win was narrow and unconvincing.

The result paid. The decision did not.

Over a season, that habit costs more than the occasional loss. A bad bet that wins encourages you to repeat it. A good bet that loses teaches you nothing except that the market can be cruel.

Judge the selection before the whistle. Judge the price against the shape you see. If the price does not reflect the risk, walk away.

One win does not make a bet sensible. One loss does not make it wrong.

Question: What is a bet you took recently where the price did not match the match you watched?