The gap that decides the match

Watch the distance between a team's defence and midfield in the first ten minutes. Not the ball. The space.

When that gap stays compact - five to seven metres - the opposition cannot find easy passes between the lines. They go wide or back. That is a team that has trained its shape.

When the gap opens to ten metres or more, the passing lane appears. A clever number ten or a dropping striker can receive between the units. From there, they turn and face goal. That is where chances come from.

If you are betting, use those ten minutes. A team that cannot keep its units close will concede more shots from central areas. That affects prices for over markets and both teams to score. But do not rush. Let the shape confirm itself.

The first ten minutes expose a bad pre-match assumption better than any highlight reel.

Question: What do you look for in the opening minutes before placing a bet?