The full-back tells you where the danger lives

Watch where the full-back stands when his team has the ball. If he is high and wide, the space behind him is open. That space does not close until he tracks back. A winger who stays wide against that full-back is not just attacking; he is waiting for the turnover.

I have seen too many bets placed on a team because they hold possession. Possession does not win matches. The distance between the full-back and his centre-back wins matches. When that gap grows beyond fifteen metres, the passing lane into that channel becomes a reliable option. The opposition will find it.

Before you place a bet, watch two transitions. See if the full-back recovers his position or jogs back. That tells you more than any shot count.

Keep your stake ordinary and your observation sharp. The match shows you the answer in the first ten minutes.

Question: Which full-back are you watching in your next match, and how far is he from his centre-back?