The space between the lines

Watch the gap between a team's midfield and attack when they lose the ball. If that distance stretches beyond fifteen metres, the forward becomes isolated. The opposition centre-backs step forward, and the passing lane into the striker disappears.

Look at the full-backs first. If they are too high when the ball turns over, the space behind them is open. That is where chances come from, not from pretty possession. I have seen too many bets placed on teams with 70 per cent possession and no penetration.

A sensible read costs nothing. Give the match ten minutes. Watch where the full-back stands when his team loses possession. If he is caught high, the counter is on. That is a pattern you can trust.

Keep the stake small until the shape confirms your read.

Question: Which full-back do you watch first when judging a team's defensive structure?